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World T20 number one spot is up for grabs


#1
Pakistan, Australia & Zimbabwe playing tri-series with 2 matches between each pair of teams, one final between top 2 teams.

Also playing are England, 3 match series against India.

Pakistan have average 130.8 points from 25 matches (rank: 1)

India (playing 3 matches against England) have 123.5 points from 34 matches (rank: 2)

Australia have average 122.4 points from 16 matches (rank: 3)

England (playing 3 matches against India) have average 118.2 points from 18 matches (rank 4)

NZ 115.5, SA 114.4, WI 113.8, Afghanistan 91.5

Zimbabwe have average 58.4 points from 14 matches (rank: 12)

Matches between mismatched teams (i.e. Aus/Pak vs Zimbabwe), if won by the stronger team's, affect the team's average points by 10/(total matches played). So if Pakistan beat Zimbabwe that's around 10/26 = 0.4 points onto their ranking. And if Australia beat them, it's around 0.6 points (since they've played fewer matches).

OTOH, a match between more evenly matched teams awards (points of the other team +- 50) / (matches played) to the winning/losing team respectively.

So the different permutations:

Quote:England 3 - 0 = England 125.8, India 119.2

England 2 - 1 = India 121.9, England 121.1

England 1 - 2 = India 124.5, England 116.5

England 0 - 3 = India 126.9, England 112.0


And then the tri-series, assuming Zimbabwe lose 4 games:

Quote:Australia 3 - 0 Pakistan Aus 131.6, Pak 125.9

Australia 2 - 1 Pakistan Pak 129.3, Aus 126.6

Australia 1 - 2 Pakistan Pak 132.4, Aus 121.8

Australia 0 - 3 Pakistan Pak 135.5, Aus 116.9


Therefore:

Quote:Australia will be between 5th and 1st

Pakistan will be 3rd to 1st (3rd behind India & Australia if India win 3-0 and Aus 3-0)

England will be between 7th and 3rd

India will be 4th, 3rd or 2nd - 2nd if they win 3-0, or if they win 2-1 and Australia beat Pakistan, or if they lose 2-1 and Pakistan beat Australia. 4th if they lose 3-0, unless Australia lose 3-0.
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#2
اچھا تجزیہ ہے

آج کا ایک میچ تو پاکستان ہار ہی چکا ہے اس کا مطلب ہے کے اگر اب ہم آگے کے سارے میچز جیت لیں تو ۱۲۹۔۳ پواینٹس ہوں گے۔
اور اگر انڈیا اگر سارے میچز جیت بھی جاے تب بھی زیادہ سے زیادہ ۱۲۶۔۹ پواینٹس ہوں گے۔

لیکن آج کی پرفارمنس سے لگ نہیں رہا کے ہم آگے کے سارے میچز جیت سکیں گے
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